Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 2419 · LAS → SJC
departs 10:20 PM PT · arrives 11:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 32%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.