WN 2612 · LIH → OAK

took off 12:29 PM HT · landed 8:00 PM PT (scheduled 12:12 PM HT → 8:22 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ This flight has been late 5% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.39 in

OAK (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2612 · LIH → OAK

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAK?