WN 2634 · SMF → LAS

departs 4:51 PM PT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8609A (B738), coming in as WN 480 from LAX: landed 3:54 PM PT.

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,143 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,571 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2634 · SMF → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?