WN 2651 · BNA → TPA

departs 12:27 PM CT · arrives 3:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2651 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?