Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 2809 · SRQ → CMH
departs 12:14 PM ET · arrives 2:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SRQ are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.