Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 2820 · MCO → BWI
departs 9:31 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.