Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 282
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 282 · AUS → BUR
departs 4:04 PM CT · arrives 5:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.