WN 2981 · OAK → SAN

departs 11:16 AM PT · arrives 12:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2981 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?