WN 3034 · MCO → MSY

departs 3:34 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MSY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3034 · MCO → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?