WN 3195 · PDX → OAK

departs 1:15 PM PT · arrives 3:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3195 · PDX → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?