WN 3470 · STL → MSY

departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 4:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3470 · STL → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?