Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
WN 3501 · GRR → DEN
departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.