Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 3631 · SAN → BWI
departs 5:05 PM PT · arrives 1:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 32%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.