Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 3779 · SFO → LAS
departs 10:42 PM PT · arrives 12:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±21 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.