Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 3782 · SFO → MDW
departs 11:35 PM PT · arrives 5:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 47%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.