WN 3848 · SJC → SNA

departs 9:55 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ 9am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3848 · SJC → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?