WN 3940 · MCO → SDF

took off 9:24 PM ET · landed 11:05 PM ET (scheduled 7:25 PM ET → 9:38 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SDF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3940 · MCO → SDF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SDF?