Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4004 · SNA → PHX
departs 10:44 AM PT · arrives 12:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.