WN 409 · BNA → ECP

departs 11:48 AM CT · arrives 1:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 409 · BNA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?