Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 4209 · ELP → DAL
departs 11:48 AM MT · arrives 2:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
11am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.