WN 420 · BNA → BUF

departs 2:19 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at BUF that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 420 · BNA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?