WN 4240 · SAN → OAK

departs 12:02 PM PT · arrives 1:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4240 · SAN → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?