Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4319
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4319 · SFO → LAX
departs 11:29 AM PT · arrives 12:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 46%
Mon 11/2 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.