WN 4341 · SJC → SAN

departs 6:40 AM PT · arrives 8:14 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4341 · SJC → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?