Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4548
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4548 · BNA → MDW
departs 10:24 PM CT · arrives 12:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 7%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.