Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 461 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

WN 461 · TPA → BHM

departs 7:56 AM ET · arrives 8:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BHM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 461 · TPA → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?