Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4623 · TPA → BNA
departs 8:48 AM ET · arrives 9:48 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 2%
Wed 10/28 3%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 4%
Sun 11/1 7%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
8am departures from TPA are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.