Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 462 · BHM → MCO
departs 7:01 AM CT · arrives 9:44 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 6%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BHM is prone to delays
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.