Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4684 · HOU → LGA
departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 7:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 64%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.