Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4689 · LAS → FAT
departs 3:21 PM PT · arrives 4:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 16%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.