WN 469 · RDU → AUS

took off 4:57 PM ET · landed 6:37 PM CT (scheduled 4:37 PM ET → 6:58 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at RDU that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 469 · RDU → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?