Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4771 · SLC → DAL
departs 5:29 PM MT · arrives 9:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.