Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4797 · LGA → BNA
departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 67%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 60%
Mon 11/2 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.