Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4840 · DAL → SEA
departs 7:31 AM CT · arrives 9:34 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 17%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.