WN 4841 · LAS → SNA

took off 4:49 PM PT · landed 5:32 PM PT (scheduled 3:48 PM PT → 5:11 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,571 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4841 · LAS → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?