Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4842 · LAX → AUS
departs 3:44 PM PT · arrives 8:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 45%
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.