WN 4927 · LGA → OMA

departs 3:17 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at LGA that day

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4927 · LGA → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?