Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 4933 · DAL → SAT
departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 6%
Mon 11/2 8%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.