Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4936 · HOU → BWI
departs 9:29 PM CT · arrives 1:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.