Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4969 · BWI → CLE
departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.