WN 496 · SAN → OMA

departs 10:18 AM PT · arrives 3:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,967 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

OMA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 496 · SAN → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?