Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 5044 · AUS → MCI
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.