Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5100
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 5100 · DEN → AUS
departs 5:45 PM MT · arrives 8:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.