Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5117
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
WN 5117 · PHX → AUS
departs 2:05 PM MT · arrives 6:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.