Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 5128 · TPA → AUS
departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 10:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.