Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 576 · PHX → SFO
departs 1:18 PM MT · arrives 3:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 52%
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.