Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 581 · OAK → PDX
departs 9:26 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 2%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.