WN 623 · SAN → OGG

departs 11:07 AM PT · arrives 2:18 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 623 · SAN → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?