Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 650
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 650 · BNA → MEM
departs 10:18 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.