Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 845 · BUF → TPA
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.